The Long Walk

The Impossible Route from Venezuela to the US

"The jungle is not easy (...); you see dead bodies along the way
and many children crying and abandoned."

7,722,579 million

Venezuelans have been leaving their country since 2014, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Considering that the population of Venezuela is approximately 30 million, the number of people who have left represents about 25% of the country's population.

2016

International

sanctions

30,000,000 people

20,000,000

10,000,000

1980

2000

2020

1960

2016

International

sanctions

30,000,000 people

30,000,000

30,000,000

1980

2000

2020

1960

Like most countries, Venezuela's population was constantly growing, passing 30 million in 2014.

According to World Bank figures, Venezuela's population began to decline in 2016, coinciding with international sanctions against members of Nicolas Maduro's administration and the oil industry.

Along with international sanctions, the country suffered a period of hyperinflation between 2015 and 2021. In 2019, the International Monetary Fund estimated that inflation could have reached 10,000,000%.

2013

International oil

prices fall

120 $/b

2012

$109.45

80

2020

$41.47

40

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2013

International oil

prices fall

120 $/b

2012

$109.45

80

2020

$41.47

40

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

But to understand why Venezuelan keep fleeing their country, it is important to analyze what happened to the Venezuelan economy years before the sanctions.

In 2012, the price of crude oil reached its highest point in history: $109.45 per barrel.

In 2013, just one year after its all-time high, the price of crude oil began its most significant drop in decadesm falling to $40.76 in 2016.

2012

$372.59b

300 billion USD

200

2002-2003

Venezuela general strike

2020

$43.78b

100

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2012

$372.59b

300 billion USD

200

2002-2003

Venezuela general strike

100

2020

$43.78b

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Historically, Venezuela's economy has largely relied on its oil industry.

This was especially true during the administration of the late President Hugo Chavez (1999-2013), Maduro's predecessor and mentor. His government was marked by high crude oil prices and a GDP that exceeded $300 billion USD.

The Chavez administration was also known for promoting a model that focused on state control over production and prices, which fostered corruption.

With the fall of oil prices, Venezuela's GDP plummeted to just $43.7 billion in 2020, the lowest amount in the nation's recent history.

The economy has fallen to levels even lower than those recorded between 2002 and 2003, when the country began a series of strikes against Chavez's policies.

The economic crisis, coupled with food shortages, insecurity, and a general collapse of services such as water supply and electrical power, sparked massive protests against Maduro's administration in 2014 and 2017 across the country.

With no short-term prospects for improvement, Venezuelans initially left their country by plane. However, as the economy deteriorated further, those unable to afford flight tickets had to flee by car, bus, or even on foot to several countries —Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Paraguay—. In recent years, some have made the perilous journey all the way to North America, reaching the US through the Darien Gap, a dangerous jungle separating Colombia from Panama.

Venezuela has witnessed the largest displacement of people in Latin America, according to UN. Some organizations argue it constitutes the world's largest crisis. The Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the 7.7 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees represent "an even larger number than the displacement of Syrians or Ukrainians outside their countries.

17.7%

25%

82.3%

75%

17.7%

25%

82.3%

75%

7.7 million Venezuelans have fled their country since 2014, when the country registered massive protests aginst Maduro's administration.

If Venezuela's population by 2014 was 30 million, the number of Venezuelans who have left represents 25% of the nation .

In comparison, 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded globally since the full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022 (as of February 2024).

This represents 17.7% of Ukraine's population.

If the Venezuelan migration was a country, it would be larger than...

Venezuela

Venezuela migration

Others

7.7 million Venezuelans

have left

Laos

7.5

8 million

7 million

Nicaragua

6.9

Libya

6.8

Bulgaria

6.5

Turkmenistan

6.4

El Salvador

6.3

Kyrgyz R.

7

7 million

6 million

Finland

Lebanon

Norway

5.5

Singapore

C. African R.

5.6

Ireland

N. Zealand

5.1

Peo. Rep. Congo

6

Denmark

5.9

Slovakia

5.4

Liberia

5.3

Costa Rica

5.2

6 million

5 million

Mauritania

4.7

Oman

4.6

Panama

4.4

Kuwait

4.3

5 million

4 million

Eritrea

Georgia

3.7

Mongolia

Uruguay

3.4

Croatia

3.9

Bosnia & Herz.

3.2

4 million

3 million

Lithuania

Jamaica,

Armenia

Albania

2.8

Slovenia

G. Bissau

N. Macedodonia

2.1

Gambia

Qatar

2.7

Botswana

Namibia

2.6

Moldova

2.5

Gabon

2.4

Lesotho

2.3

3 million

2 million

T. & Tobago

Bahrain

1.5

Timor-Este

Mauritius

1.3

Cyprus

Eswatini

1.2

Latvia

1.9

Kosovo

1.8

E. Guinea

1.7

Estonia

1.4

Djibouti

1.1

2 million

1 million

Luxembourg

Suriname

Montenegro

C. Verde

0.6

Comoros

Guyana

Bhutan

0.8

Malta

Maldivas

0.5

Fiji

0.9

Solomon I

0.7

1 million

0 million

If the Venezuelan migration was a country,

it would be larger than...

Venezuela

Venezuela migration

Others

7.7 million Venezuelans

have left

8 million

7.5

Laos

7.5

7.5

7

Nicaragua

6.9

Libya

6.8

Kyrgyz R.

7

7

6.5

Bulgaria

6.5

Turkmenistan

6.4

El Salvador

6.3

6.5

6

Singapore

C. African R.

5.6

Peo. Rep. Congo

6

Denmark

5.9

6

5.5

Finland

Lebanon

Norway

5.5

Ireland

N. Zealand

5.1

Slovakia

5.4

Liberia

5.3

Costa Rica

5.2

5.5

5

Mauritania

4.7

Oman

4.6

5 million

4.5

Panama

4.4

Kuwait

4.3

4.5

4

Eritrea

Georgia

3.7

Croatia

3.9

4

3.5

Mongolia

Uruguay

3.4

Bosnia & Herz.

3.2

3.5

3

Lithuania

Jamaica,

Armenia

Albania

2.8

Gambia

Qatar

2.7

Botswana

Namibia

2.6

3

2.5

Slovenia

G. Bissau

N. Macedodonia

2.1

Moldova

2.5

Gabon

2.4

Lesotho

2.3

2.5

2

Latvia

1.9

Kosovo

1.8

E. Guinea

1.7

2

1.5

T. & Tobago

Bahrain

1.5

Timor-Este

Mauritius

1.3

Cyprus

Eswatini

1.2

Estonia

1.4

Djibouti

1.1

1.5

1

Luxembourg

Suriname

Montenegro

C. Verde

0.6

Comoros

Guyana

Bhutan

0.8

Fiji

0.9

Solomon I

0.7

1

0.5

If the Venezuelan migration was a country, it would be larger than...

Venezuela

Venezuela migration

Others

7.7 million Venezuelans

have left

Laos

7.5

8 million

7 million

Nicaragua

6.9

Libya

6.8

Bulgaria

6.5

Turkmenistan

6.4

El Salvador

6.3

Kyrgyz R.

7

7 million

6 million

Finland

Lebanon

Norway

5.5

Singapore

C. African R.

5.6

Ireland

N. Zealand

5.1

Peo. Rep. Congo

6

Denmark

5.9

Slovakia

5.4

Liberia

5.3

Costa Rica

5.2

6 million

5 million

Mauritania

4.7

Oman

4.6

Panama

4.4

Kuwait

4.3

5 million

4 million

Eritrea

Georgia

3.7

Mongolia

Uruguay

3.4

Croatia

3.9

Bosnia & Herz.

3.2

4 million

3 million

Lithuania

Jamaica,

Armenia

Albania

2.8

Slovenia

G. Bissau

N. Macedodonia

2.1

Gambia

Qatar

2.7

Botswana

Namibia

2.6

Moldova

2.5

Gabon

2.4

Lesotho

2.3

3 million

2 million

T. & Tobago

Bahrain

1.5

Timor-Este

Mauritius

1.3

Cyprus

Eswatini

1.2

Latvia

1.9

Kosovo

1.8

E. Guinea

1.7

Estonia

1.4

Djibouti

1.1

2 million

1 million

Luxembourg

Suriname

Montenegro

C. Verde

0.6

Comoros

Guyana

Bhutan

0.8

Malta

Maldivas

0.5

Fiji

0.9

Solomon I

0.7

1 million

0 million

“Hell is nothing compared to what I went through in the jungle.”

Panama

Capurganá

Panama City

Necoclí

Darien

Gap

Turbo

Jaqué

Juradó

Colombia

Panama

Capurganá

Panama City

Darien

Gap

Jaqué

Juradó

Colombia

Panama

Capurganá

Panama City

Necoclí

Darien

Gap

Turbo

Jaqué

Juradó

Colombia

+209.47%

2023

520,085

400,000 crossings

200,000

2022

248,284

+185.77%

2021

133,653

+1,555.00%

2020

8,595 crossings

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2023

520,085

+209.47%

400,000 crossings

200,000

+185.77%

2021

242,284

2021

133,653

+1,555.00%

2020

8,595 crossings

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Historically, people have always crossed the Darien Gap. However, the number of crossings before the COVID-19 pandemic compared to after the lockdown measures is significantly different.

In 2020, the number of crossings from Colombia to Panama fell from 22,102 to 8,595, a 61% decrease compared to 2019. The travel restrictions affected the number of people walking through the jungle.

Between 2020 and 2021 alone, the number of crossings increased by over 1,500%. Since then, the figures have continued to double every year.

There are many factors that can explain why the number of people crossing the Darien Gap on foot increased so dramatically after 2020: lack of jobs, economic paralysis, and migrants without regular status.

The situation for Venezuelan migrants is particularly dire. Many arrived in other countries without money and struggled to obtain legal status, making it difficult for them to find employment. Giuseppe Loprete, spokesperson for the International Organization for Migration in Panama, noted that the Covid-19 pandemic has rendered Venezuelans "even more vulnerable as they cannot satisfy their most basic needs. Consequently, they are crossing the Darien Gap through perilous routes in search of a better life."

According to UNHCR, out of the 7.7 million of Venezuelan migrants, 6.5 (84.42%) are in Latin America, with significant populations in Colombia, Peru, and Chile.

Non Venezuela

Venezuela

500,000 crossings

300,000

100,000

328,650

150,327

2,819

188,201

128,259

50

97,957

8,545

2020

2021

2023

2022

Non Venezuela

Venezuela

500,000 crossings

300,000

100,000

328,650

150,327

2,819

188,201

128,259

97,957

50

8,545

2020

2021

2023

2022

In 2020, the majority of people who crossed the Darien Gap came from Haiti (6,653) and Cuba (528). A similar pattern occurred in 2021, with Haitians at the top of the list (82,879), followed by Cubans (18,600).

But in 2022, Venezuelans became the main nationality crossing into Panama towards Central America —and then North America.

The number of Venezuelans reached 150,327 at the end of 2022, an increase of 1,875% compared to 2021. Venezuelans represented 60.55% of the total number of people crossing the Darien Gap.

In 2023, Venezuelans represented 63.56% of the total of crossings, with an increase of 218.62% compared to the year before.

However, it is important to clarify that the data on crossings through the Darien Gap, extracted from the Statistics Office of the Government of Panama, specifies the nationality but not the coutry of origin.

Venezuela

Ecuador

328,650

300,000 crossings

200,000

100,000

150,327

57,250

26,356

25

387

50

2,819

2020

2021

2022

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

China

Haiti

300,000 crossings

200,000

100,000

82,879

46,422

25,565

22,435

6,653

2,005

0

77

2020

2021

2022

2023

2021

2022

2020

2023

Colombia

Chile

300,000 crossings

200,000

100,000

18,841

9,587

5,877

5,064

5

18

169

1,805

2020

2021

2023

2022

2020

2021

2023

2022

Venezuela

328,650

300,000 crossings

200,000

100,000

150,327

50

2,819

2020

2021

2023

2022

Ecuador

300,000

200,000

100,000

57,250

26,356

387

25

2020

2021

2023

2022

Haiti

300,000

200,000

100,000

82,879

46,422

22,435

6,653

2020

2021

2023

2022

China

300,000

200,000

100,000

25,565

2,005

0

77

2020

2021

2023

2022

Colombia

300,000

200,000

100,000

18,841

5,064

18

169

2020

2021

2023

2022

Chile

300,000

200,000

100,000

9,587

5,877

1,805

5

2020

2021

2023

2022

"I would have gone by plane, but who is going to give me a visa? This hell was my only option."

Jan 2021

Biden takes office

Dec 2023

301,982

300,000 encounters

200,000

100,000

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024*

*April 2024 FYTD

Jan 2021

Biden takes office

Dec 2023

301,982

300,000 encounters

200,000

100,000

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024*

*April 2024 FYTD

The number of encounters between American authorities and migrants at the Southwest border with Mexico increased significantly in 2021, when Joe Biden became the president of the US.

The highest figure since then was in December 2023, with 301,982 encounters.

Analysing the number of encounters at the Southwest Land Border by nationality, we find that Mexico is at the top of the list, as it has been historically.

However, the most significant increase has been among Venezuelans, who ranked second after Mexicans in 2023. Following increases in 2021 and especially in 2022, the number of encounters between American authorities and Venezuelans peaked in September 2023 with 66,584 encounters; and again in December 2023 with 62,850 encounters.

Mexico

Venezuela

Others

Mar 2022

88,132

Sep 2023

66,584

80,000 encounters

40,000

Dec 2023

62,850

2021

2022

2023

2024*

*April 2024 FYTD

Mexico

Venezuela

Others

Mar 2022

88,132

80,000 encounters

40,000

Sep 2023

66,584

Dec 2023

62,850

2021

2022

2023

2024*

*April 2024 FYTD

Venezuelans granted asylum in the US

6,591

5,796

6,000 individuals

4,000

2,000

4,013

3,691

1,916

673

539

492

386

342

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Includes Venezuelans granted asylum defensely and affirmatively

Venezuelans granted asylun in the US

6,591

5,796

6,000 individuals

4,000

2,000

4,013

3,691

1,916

673

539

492

386

342

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

Includes Venezuelans granted asylum defensely and affirmatively